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Influenza A (H1N1) analysis

July 11, 2009

Have a look at the graphs below and take note on where Brunei stands. During the survey period, Brunei is the top 40 countires in the world with the highest growth of cases in the last ten days from the survey with 547%. But then again, Brunei has a very small population and has been the last country in South East Asia to catch the flu.  I do hope the Bruneian authroties are coming up with an analysis on the H1N1 so that lessons can be learnt from the situation, our preparedness, our action plans, emergency procedures in an event of a pandemic and the most important of all, prevention. China has offered help as it has its own experience with the bird flu. We can always learn.

Did anyone know which is the mother of all pandemics? Its the 1918 Influenza, also known as the Spanish Flu which infected one third of the world’s population or around 500 million people at that time. Why its 1918? Because it happened way back in 1918 and I think that maybe at that time no one has come up with the H1 family name for virus as yet.  You can read more interesting influenza history here.

Source from the rest of this post below: http://www.peterosborn.com.

“Peter has worked extensively on business contingency planning.  Since 2005 he has worked closely with Dr. Tony Yardley-Jones to track the threats posed to business by pandemic influenza, and help management teams develop appropriate strategies for their organisations. Tony is a specialist in Occupational Medicine and Toxicology, and He has worked with international businesses for over 20 years in all aspects of occupational health. We concentrate on the issues for Management and business that might be expected to arise from a pandemic.”

This is a summary of the key statistics of H1N1.The aim is to be able to understand the flow of the trends, not to attempt to document individual data or calculate totals from the chaotic reporting that takes place.

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These two graphs look at the history of total deaths and total cases so far. Blue trace is death rate (CFR), left-hand axis. Red trace is total cases, right-hand axis. Green dots plot new cases reported daily. Straight black line is linear trend. Black trace is five-day moving average. Red trace is long-term average since 20 April 2009.

These two graphs look at the history of total deaths and total cases so far. Blue trace is death rate (CFR), left-hand axis. Red trace is total cases, right-hand axis. Green dots plot new cases reported daily. Straight black line is linear trend. Black trace is five-day moving average. Red trace is long-term average since 20 April 2009.

Ten-day growth cases with Brunei on the top of 40 countries.

Ten-day growth cases with Brunei on the top of 40 countries.

Cases per 10,000 population

Cases per 10,000 population

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Three pandemic waves: weekly combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, United Kingdom, 1918-1919

Three pandemic waves: weekly combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, United Kingdom, 1918-1919

 

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